2026 General — Likely Voters
How the electorate changes from the June primary: PDI's 26G8 likely-voter universe vs actual 2026 Primary turnout, by precinct, for every jurisdiction.
This is a likely-voter universe, not election results: 26G8 is the turnout screen most pollsters are using for the November 2026 General (universe as of 2026-08-25). Pick a county to see partisan and demographic composition shifts, precinct maps, and jurisdiction-level breakdowns.
Alameda
409,097 voted → 681,391 likely(1.67×)
D+53.8 → D+50.0 -3.8 pt
Amador
16,148 voted → 22,809 likely(1.41×)
R+25.1 → R+26.1 -1.0 pt
Butte
61,958 voted → 97,484 likely(1.57×)
R+7.8 → R+5.7 +2.1 pt
Calaveras
14,836 voted → 21,890 likely(1.48×)
R+27.7 → R+27.5 +0.2 pt
Colusa
4,291 voted → 7,350 likely(1.71×)
R+31.0 → R+19.0 +12.0 pt
Contra Costa
329,510 voted → 544,555 likely(1.65×)
D+35.5 → D+34.1 -1.4 pt
El Dorado
72,429 voted → 110,352 likely(1.52×)
R+14.5 → R+13.0 +1.5 pt
Fresno
182,196 voted → 332,135 likely(1.82×)
R+3.6 → D+0.7 +4.3 pt
Imperial
24,803 voted → 52,012 likely(2.10×)
D+16.7 → D+16.7 +0.0 pt
Kern
151,595 voted → 284,095 likely(1.87×)
R+16.3 → R+11.2 +5.1 pt
Kings
22,174 voted → 41,411 likely(1.87×)
R+20.8 → R+14.4 +6.4 pt
Los Angeles
2,218,163 voted → 3,853,375 likely(1.74×)
D+37.5 → D+35.1 -2.4 pt
Lake
16,872 voted → 26,992 likely(1.60×)
D+1.9 → D+1.2 -0.7 pt
Madera
32,145 voted → 55,559 likely(1.73×)
R+19.4 → R+13.8 +5.6 pt
Marin
106,271 voted → 148,398 likely(1.40×)
D+54.2 → D+51.7 -2.5 pt
Mendocino
26,261 voted → 40,216 likely(1.53×)
D+27.0 → D+24.5 -2.5 pt
Merced
46,423 voted → 86,426 likely(1.86×)
D+1.1 → D+5.7 +4.6 pt
Modoc
2,766 voted → 4,099 likely(1.48×)
R+47.0 → R+43.9 +3.1 pt
Mono
3,685 voted → 6,068 likely(1.65×)
D+12.1 → D+11.8 -0.3 pt
Napa
41,434 voted → 65,883 likely(1.59×)
D+29.5 → D+29.0 -0.5 pt
Nevada
49,272 voted → 71,891 likely(1.46×)
D+6.2 → D+6.0 -0.2 pt
Orange
804,981 voted → 1,405,948 likely(1.75×)
R+1.5 → D+0.9 +2.4 pt
Placer
148,255 voted → 232,752 likely(1.57×)
R+11.5 → R+10.8 +0.7 pt
Riverside
558,012 voted → 970,443 likely(1.74×)
D+1.7 → D+3.9 +2.2 pt
Sacramento
399,631 voted → 671,581 likely(1.68×)
D+21.4 → D+19.8 -1.6 pt
San Bernardino
402,055 voted → 776,322 likely(1.93×)
D+2.5 → D+6.0 +3.5 pt
San Diego
840,768 voted → 1,464,261 likely(1.74×)
D+12.4 → D+13.3 +0.9 pt
San Francisco
269,440 voted → 413,996 likely(1.54×)
D+63.3 → D+59.1 -4.2 pt
San Joaquin
131,407 voted → 258,568 likely(1.97×)
D+2.5 → D+7.2 +4.7 pt
San Luis Obispo
100,561 voted → 152,840 likely(1.52×)
D+4.3 → D+4.2 -0.1 pt
San Mateo
195,786 voted → 323,747 likely(1.65×)
D+45.0 → D+43.0 -2.0 pt
Santa Barbara
112,832 voted → 185,461 likely(1.64×)
D+20.8 → D+21.6 +0.8 pt
Santa Clara
421,927 voted → 761,611 likely(1.81×)
D+35.4 → D+34.5 -0.9 pt
Santa Cruz
86,511 voted → 136,627 likely(1.58×)
D+50.3 → D+47.0 -3.3 pt
Shasta
55,018 voted → 87,741 likely(1.59×)
R+35.1 → R+34.3 +0.8 pt
Sierra
1,271 voted → 1,786 likely(1.41×)
R+24.7 → R+23.2 +1.5 pt
Siskiyou
13,069 voted → 19,581 likely(1.50×)
R+21.0 → R+20.1 +0.9 pt
Solano
108,641 voted → 193,873 likely(1.78×)
D+22.8 → D+23.7 +0.9 pt
Sonoma
169,011 voted → 250,240 likely(1.48×)
D+42.5 → D+39.5 -3.0 pt
Stanislaus
99,258 voted → 192,794 likely(1.94×)
R+7.5 → R+3.6 +3.9 pt
Sutter
23,344 voted → 39,999 likely(1.71×)
R+25.9 → R+18.0 +7.9 pt
Tehama
15,247 voted → 24,041 likely(1.58×)
R+41.2 → R+36.4 +4.8 pt
Tulare
70,461 voted → 136,119 likely(1.93×)
R+19.7 → R+12.3 +7.4 pt
Ventura
235,345 voted → 397,793 likely(1.69×)
D+12.1 → D+13.1 +1.0 pt
Yolo
61,699 voted → 93,590 likely(1.52×)
D+34.8 → D+31.7 -3.1 pt
45 counties covered. Counties appear once their precinct crosswalk and geometry are onboarded; margins are Dem−Rep among each universe's voters, and the bold figure is the margin shift from primary electorate to the likely voters in the General Election.